What Are the Odds Dead & Company Will Play These Songs?

Dead & Company have been going from city-to-city on their current 2018 summer tour, with Dead Heads in tow. The jam band’s 4+ hour, two-part sets have avoided repeating the same songs night-to-night, and with their world-class improvisational skills, every night is unique and unparalleled.
With 16 dates behind them and forever to go (Jerry might be gone but the music of the Dead lives on forever,) there's no telling what will go on their next setlist. Which is why you should quit your day job to follow them on tour and find out! Ok, we realize this is an unrealistic possibility for many of you, that's why we've used our very accurate setlist data to crunch some numbers that'll predict the likelihood of Dead & Co playing these coveted tracks at future dates.
This was one of the harder calculations to make simply because the jamband collective, known for the spontaneity, can pull out these tracks at any point in a set. So while the possibility may sound slim, you should take it with a grain of salt, because any percentage could indicate some limelight for the song at some point. Anyway, here are the odds!
"Scarlet Begonias" - 27.2%
This track has already made an appearance on four Dead & Co setlists this year, so it has the highest probability that it will pop up sporadically for the remainder of their summer tour, which concludes August 26 at the Lockn' Music Festival in Arrington, Virginia. It also was a track that didn't get much love since 1995 when the Grateful Dead were still a band, so we are happy to hear Dead & Co revive this gem.
"Casey Jones" - 24%
This is a classic Grateful Dead track. If you aren't a Dead Head, you still know this song. You know, the song that starts "Driving that train, high on ..." I'll let you fill in the blanks... So far it's been only played once on this summer tour, but our numbers say there's a 24% chance it'll reappear on a setlist before the tour is over. That may sound small but it also means a handful of lucky cities will get to hear this jam soon. Unless you're a hardcore Dead Head! Then you're good.
"Ramble on Rose" - 20.4%
"Ramble on Rose" is a track off of Grateful Dead's inspirational Europe '72 album. It got a lot of love by them up until the '90s, but thankfully Dead & Co have been bringing this baby back every now and then. It's been played a total of 20 times since the group got together, and it last made an appearance on June 2nd. Well folks, there's still a good two months left of their tour, that's like a million hours of jam time so 20.4% is looking good.
"China Doll" - 7.6%
Things are not looking good for 1974's "China Doll." It hardly got any play back in the Grateful Dead days, except in the early '90s. Dead & Co showed it some love last year, however, and it made an appearance twice in the fall. So it's definitely not an impossibility that Bob Weir, John Mayer, and the boys will whip out their "China Doll" this summer.
"Box of Rain" - 4.2%
I'm grieving over the fact that the very first Grateful Dead song I ever listened to (and loved) is the least likely song to make an appearance on this tour. This feel-good track has only been performed three times by Dead & Co and that was back in 2016. I don't want to give up all hope though, because they still have a million hours of jamming left to do on this tour and no setlist has been the same so far. Putting out the feelers for this one!
Dead & Company will be jamming tonight in Hartford, Connecticut. Head to their website to see where they'll be heading next and hop on that Dead Head train!

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Last updated: 17 Oct 2018, 14:06 Etc/UTC