What Are the Odds Post Malone Plays THESE Songs on Tour?

Post Malone is making his rounds through North America in celebration of his recently released third studio album, Hollywood's Bleeding.
The album features an array of guest appearances from DaBaby, Halsey, Future, Meek Mill, Ozzy Osbourne, Lil Baby, Travis Scott, SZA, Swae Lee and Young Thug, and was preceded by six singles: "Wow," "Goodbyes," "Circles," "Allergic" and "Take What You Want."
Malone's supporting North American trek, dubbed The Runaway Tour, kicked off September 14 in Tacoma, and has remaining stops in Glendale, Denver, Salt Lake City, Oakland and Anaheim before coming to a close November 20 in Los Angeles.
Throughout the run, Posty has been treating fans to a range of songs spanning his entire career, from "White Iverson" to "Hollywood's Bleeding" (you can hear exactly what he's playing by cueing up our Runaway Tour Setlist Playlist on Spotify).
Thanks to our Setlist data, we were able to take a look at each of Posty's setlists by the numbers, and determined the probability that he'll play certain songs live.
Here are the odds:

"Die for Me"

Post Malone played "Die for Me" on the tour's opening night, September 14. Throughout the tour, he's played it a grand total of 28 times... which means he HASN'T performed this beloved Hollywood's Bleeding track at four of his shows.
That gives it an 87.5% chance of being played at his next performance.
Post Malone, "Die for Me"

"Too Young"

This ode to A$AP Yams has become a fan-favorite since its release on SoundCloud in 2015. It was also featured on his debut album Stoney.
However...
Out of his 306 shows since its live debut, Malone has only played this track 128 times, giving it a 41.8% chance of appearing on a Runaway Tour setlist (even though it's his 8th most-played song ever!)
Post Malone "Die for Me" music video

"Circles"

This new song made its debut on August 5, during a performance with Sublime With Rome. Doesn't get much cooler than that.
That being said, it's only been played 11 times since – eight times in September, twice in October and only once so far this month. We're giving it a 30% chance of being played at an upcoming show.
Post Malone, "Circles" music video

"Holyfield"

OG fans remember this pre-Stoney SoundCloud track, which pays homage to boxing heavyweight great Evander Holyfield.
"Holyfield" never appeared on a studio album, and unfortunately has only been played live twice. Its last known performance was on September 18. 2016 at Gothic Theatre in Englewood.
Check out this throwback setlist!
Post Malone setlist
It's pretty obvious that we're giving this a 0.006% chance of being played anytime soon.

"No Option"

This one goes out to all of Posty's haters.
He debuted this Stoney track on February 3, 2017 and has played it 95 times since, with its last performance on August 25... meaning there's a 43.2% chance he'll play it anytime soon.
Post Malone, "No Option"
Check out Post Malone's remaining Runaway Tour dates below, and head to Live Nation for your tickets!
Post Malone's Runaway Tour dates:
11/08 – Glendale, AZ @ Gila River Arena
11/10 – Denver, CO @ Pepsi Center
11/11 – Salt Lake City, UT @ Vivint Smart Home Arena
11/14 – Oakland, CA @ Oracle Arena
11/16 – Anaheim, CA @ Honda Center
11/20 – Los Angeles, CA @ The Forum
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Last updated: 11 Nov 2019, 21:40 Etc/UTC